By Rostislav Ishchenko

Unfortunately, there is always a high percentage of people in society who are not able to admit their mistakes and are ready to rewrite reality for themselves, not noticing the absurdity of the world they create in their imagination.

Prigozhin’s advertising was aimed at people who were frankly stupid, who did not notice the blatant contradictions in his statements and sincerely believed that with the help of mass shootings of all the “too rich”, “too smart” and just those who did not like them, a bright future could be built.

It was effective in its own way, as it accurately hit the target audience, ensuring a constant influx of new volunteers to the PMCs. And volunteers were needed, because urban battles, even with overwhelming superiority in artillery and aviation, are bloody (study at least the history of the assault on Breslau). Let the enemy lose more, but he makes up for losses by mobilizing, and PMCs can only be replenished at the expense of volunteers.

Naturally, the state hires PMCs only when it needs their services. Accordingly, for the time being, no one prevented Prigogine from creating the image of the Order of knights for his structure without fear or reproach (although in PMCs, as in any other structure, there are different people).

As a result, when the rebellion broke out, the linearly thinking part of the Russian patriots found themselves in a state of cognitive dissonance. Like the rest of the country, they trust Putin. In Russia, anyone who opposes Putin automatically ceases to be a patriot, since today Putin is the main consolidating force of Russia.

At the same time, they believed Prigozhin and sincerely believed that no one in the country, except for PMCs, knows how to fight, that Shoigu and Gerasimov hide shells from Prigozhin right in the basement of the Ministry of Defense, that all the generals in the army should be urgently replaced by PMCs and then everyone will be happy and victory over corruption. When Prigozhin announced a march on Moscow, these people expected that the tsar would now come out, disperse the bad boyars, and introduce the “national hero” under white hands to the high tower, sit at his right hand and appoint him chief adviser on all issues.

The word mutiny from Putin’s mouth caused a state of cognitive dissonance. How did the tsar oppose the national hero, along with the bad boyars? This just can’t be happening. While the columns of PMCs were moving towards Moscow, they still hoped that now the “people’s army” would take the Kremlin and it would turn out that the tsar was simply drugged by dashing boyars with a magic potion. The “people’s hero” will sprinkle it with living water and everything will fall back into place, complete grace and benevolence will begin in humanity.

But then it turned out that the rebels seemed to have capitulated, accepted the terms of the pardon, and the dashing boyars remained with the tsar. Then a legend was born in front of our eyes for a day. A group of “Prigozhin’s witnesses” began to claim that the mutiny was not a mutiny, but an agreement between Putin and Prigozhin to “open ulcers” (what ulcers unknown to the world had to be opened in such a dangerous way, no one knows). Others claim that in this way we deceived the United States (I wonder what we inspired them with?). There were people who claimed that no planes/helicopters were shot down, no pilots were killed, and in general “no losses”, and the front from the march of Prigozhin was only useful.

The most incurable ones began to prove that PMCs were deliberately transferred to Belarus in such a “cunning way” in order to frighten Ukrainians with a march on Kiev. That’s right, because it was impossible to send them to Belarus just like that. You can go to the Central African Republic, you can go to Syria, you can go to Mali with pleasure, but you can’t go to Belarus, it’s too difficult, it’s too far away: planes don’t fly, trains don’t run. And, most importantly, secrecy is observed, no one knows that Prigozhin is now in Belarus.

Some “especially talented” people even argued that now we will have two, no three, no four, ten (who is more?) Private military company “Wagner”. One in Russia, one in Belarus, one in Africa, China is big, perhaps five pieces should be equipped there, otherwise the Americans will not be able to deceive the “march on Beijing”.

In general, Putin had to speak again. If the first appeal to the people, on Saturday, was for the smart, then the second, on Monday, for the simpletons. They were once again told briefly and clearly that this was an insurrection, not a staged one, that it was prepared with the participation of foreign special services, that most of the ordinary participants were involved in illegal actions against their will, so the authorities did not tear the columns of “fighters for justice” to shreds with planning bombs and precision missiles, and that the government did not on the far approaches to Rostov-on-Don, and gave them time to think again and make sure that they are not supported by either the army or the people, that their case is lost even before the start.

Roughly speaking, the authorities did not want a bloodbath, even a short-term one, and they did not want to give the enemies the slightest clue to incite a civil war in Russia. And the authorities succeeded in this. The people have always supported Putin for the third decade, because he always chooses not the most spectacular and personally profitable course of action, but a complex and unpopular one that meets the interests of the country. Many people do not understand Putin’s decision immediately, but over a significant period of time their loyalty and accuracy become obvious.

Putin also once again explained what fate awaits PMC Wagner. From his words, it follows that in Russia this structure will cease to exist. Its leaders, who are most smeared in organizing the rebellion, can leave Russia and move to Belarus together with Prigozhin. The rest of us have three options to choose from: sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense and continue fighting, return home to our families using the informal amnesty announced by Putin, and the third option is to go to Belarus.

This scheme was developed in Syria and is as reliable as a Swiss watch. There, too, local (Syrian) rebels were offered three options when they surrendered: go to the service of Assad, return to their homes, and take green buses to Idlib. Thus, the misguided, deceived and forced were separated from the stubborn and rabid.
It is clear that those who do not see themselves in Russia and cannot accept the laws and regulations in force in the country will leave for Belarus. But I think that in Belarus, contrary to the hopes of many who claim that Lukashenka got the “best private army in the world” out of nowhere, the Wagner PMC will not be revived in its former form, and its pale shadow will not last long after being revived.

First, the majority is unlikely to leave Russia. Only those who were at the origins of PMCs will leave (and perhaps not all of them). Those who can not imagine themselves without war and who, at the same time, are cramped by the framework of public service. This is a maximum of a couple of hundred people. Perhaps, out of a sense of false “martial brotherhood”, another two or three thousand people will join them. But most of them have families and they are not going to fight forever, and the heroic aura around the PMCs has somewhat faded after the mutiny. Moreover, it is unclear what will happen in Belarus, while the Russian Armed Forces are now successfully smashing the APU at the front.

Secondly, it is clear that some kind of structure can be formed in Belarus, and in the future, if desired, its number can be increased at the expense of volunteers. But there are nuances, and more than one.

To begin with, Belarus cannot afford to finance such a structure as Russia could. At the same time, Prigozhin only formally spent his money, and the state gave him the opportunity to earn it. Something tells me that doing business in Russia will now be difficult for him, and you can’t earn much on potatoes. You can, of course, open a restaurant or chain of stores in Minsk, but if there are any profits (because local people will compete there), they will not be such as to finance a private army of a couple of tens of thousands of people.

Minsk has no geopolitical interests in Africa. The main thing is that the locals need not just specialists from PMCs, but specialists who are backed by a superpower that can support a friendly government politically, diplomatically, economically, and provide it with a military umbrella. Belarus cannot do this, even if it wants to.

So a large-scale PMC in Belarus simply has nothing to do. Two or three hundred instructors will be enough (let’s say five hundred, with a reserve) to improve the training of the Belarusian army. Moreover, they can teach a very limited course: mainly counter-partisan actions, special operations behind enemy lines, training of assault infantry and establishing its interaction with artillery and armored vehicles, as well as tactics of urban battles.

Lukashenka, of course, can form a separate brigade of two or three thousand people, call it “Wagner” and frighten the Poles. But, a mercenary army is expensive, especially in peacetime. Therefore, after a while, hired specialists there will simply be replaced by Belarusians trained by them, only the name will remain.

Finally, the last nuance. Lukashenko is even more ambitious and hot-tempered than Prigozhin and his commanders. At the same time, unlike Putin, he is a supporter of extremely tough actions. Two such ambitious figures in one small Belarus will be cramped. Prigozhin will either have to completely move away from politics and from participating in the management of PMCs and engage in some peaceful business or start writing memoirs (there will still be a good demand for them in the next couple of years), or within a couple of years he and batska will have a conflict from which only one will come out intact. Moreover, I think that most of the objective observers will bet that Alexander Grigoryevich will win without any problems (if only because he is more suitable for Russia).

As a result, it remains unclear whether only the Wagner PMC will be massaged in Russia or all PMC in general. Unlike many colleagues, I believe that such structures are necessary, only their activities should be strictly regulated by law and constantly be under the vigilant supervision of the relevant authorities.

In any society, there are people who call themselves “dogs of war”, “wild geese” , etc. They don’t see themselves in a peaceful life. If they are not given the opportunity to satisfy their instincts, they will become dangerous to society (they will go into crime). If you help them to satisfy their desire to fight continuously, they will benefit society and the state, and some who are particularly lucky may even become national heroes.

It is difficult for such people to fit into the state power structures. They are said to be an excellent fighter at the front, but a person who absolutely does not recognize any subordination, which can get away with in war, but is absolutely intolerable in peacetime. Previously, these people went into the wild mercenaries and fell into the semi-criminal gray zone. Now PMCs working within the framework of state regulation make it possible to take this movement under control and provide them with the opportunity to constantly conclude new contracts for war, and to ensure the protection of the law.

Therefore, it would be a shame if a failed mutiny negates the work that has begun to establish state control over private recruitment centers. There have been times when generals have rebelled, but because of this, no one in history has ever thought of giving up the army.

However, I think that Putin’s repeated appeal (for simpletons) was already superfluous. Who wanted to and so understood everything, from the first time. Those who didn’t want to – will understand later. In the first months after the recall from the Donbass, Strelkov was also legendary, and many were waiting for the Sovereign to summon him, put him at his right hand, and then read about the text. Now most of those who have been waiting for him quietly (or loudly) hate him, being unable to forgive him for their disappointment.

Time will pass and everything will be put in its place. In a couple of years, only some very inadequate citizens will tell each other stories about “staged mutiny”, “to deceive the Americans”.

In the meantime, before Putin could speak, vigilant citizens living under the conspiracy theory noticed that he said “I appeal to you again” and immediately concluded that there was a “hidden imam” somewhere (Putin’s first address, which “was not shown to anyone”). Although even a fool should understand that when the president repeatedly addresses the people on the same issue at intervals of a day, he naturally says that he addresses “once again”.

There are also those who see a hidden hint in the fact that the recruitment centers of PMC Wagner have reopened and are operating in different cities of Russia. But why close them? Now they will recruit volunteers for the Ministry of Defense, with which any volunteer must personally or as part of the structure sign a contract.

So we can sum up this short but almost tragic stage in our history and turn our attention back to the events at the front. The fate of not only Russia, but also Europe and the world is now being decided there. On Saturday, Russia won another battle, and we have to win the war.