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War is chosen

About the new plans of the West in Ukraine

By Rotislav Ishchenko

(machine translation)

It all started with the announced resignation of Victoria Nuland. Given the age of the lagged, this may be the end of the successfully developed career of the granddaughter of the local emigrants and the daughter of Yale professor, who made his way to the highest echelon of American politics, moreover, in its most closed and corporate part – under the auspices of the State Department.

The political analyst and columnist of the MIA “Russia Today” Rostislav Ishchenko expressed his opinion about the new plans of the West in Ukraine.

(L) Reichsminister of Foreign Affairs von Ribbentrop with Hitler; (R) Victoria Nuland with Biden

Until recently, Nuland was seen as a potential candidate for the post of First Deputy Secretary of State and a candidate for the Secretary of State in the event of the unlikely victory of the Democrats in the upcoming presidential election. Given that it was Nuland who was the “engineering” that pulled out American politics in the Russian direction, overcoming all possible difficulties (from reformatting the 2014 Maidan under the USA in its final phase, before the sabotage and breakdown of the Minsk agreements, which would have been impossible without the stubborn but flexible tactics of Nuland at the same time), its further career growth would not only be a fair reward for efforts, but also corresponded to the interests of the Biden administration’s policies.

It can be assumed that Nuland went around at the turn of majors from more decent families. Nevertheless, the hereditary American aristocracy, whose ancestors arrived at the Mayflower, never finally accepts middle-class immigrants. No matter how rich and successful they are, unless their grandchildren can claim relative equality. But Victoria has a very difficult husband, and the time is difficult – at such times, qualified personnel are not scattered, and majors from “good families” are not in a hurry to take responsibility.

Nuland could get tired, get sick, even just want to jump from the ship of the Democratic Party, which is in full swing to the reefs. But all her previous activities are contrary to such assumptions. She looks more like a man who dies at a combat post for the sake of realizing his idea, who will fight for a doomed ship even if the captain and most of the team have already left him. She is one of the people living under the motto “Win or die”.

And suddenly, on the eve of the most difficult elections, the Democrats, without any reflection, refuse such a valuable frame. One could have guessed the reasons for a long time, but the next event happened here.

Zaluzhny, who allegedly stubbornly refused the post of ambassador to Britain, suddenly joyfully accepted this appointment. By the way, hello to those who for a year and a half said that the Zelensky creation of the British (they showed him the MI-6 headquarters and put his special forces to guard him), and the Hollow – Americans (they overlaid it with advisers). And all that happened in Kiev as part of Zelensky’s alleged conflict with the Hollow – is the struggle of the Americans with the British for control over the remnants of the Ukrainian garbage, in which Zaluzhny allegedly represented the Americans, and Zelensky English. It is harmful for some people to watch Western political blockbusters, they begin to perceive life as a movie. Now the same figures say that the English Hall Creativity turns out to be and they “saved” it by taking the ambassador – will be taught there to work as president.

In general, the simplicity, optimism and flight of the imagination of some people are unlimited. But the fact remains – Zaluzhny was offered to leave as ambassador to London somewhere since the end of December 2023. He was in no hurry to accept this offer even after his formal resignation. And suddenly agreed.

Finally, as a cherry on the cake, it just as suddenly became clear that Zelensky was allegedly dissatisfied with his absolutely obedient Kuleba, who zealously defended the position of the Presidential Office in the international arena. Kuleba begins to quickly resolve his team in new positions (it’s hard to find suitable embassies right away, so while Kuleba’s employees leaving office do not announce their plans, simply making it clear, that remain in the diplomatic service). Allegedly in a couple of weeks (may be a little faster or a little later) should also resign Kuleba himself.

(L) Joachim von Ribbentrop with Stalin; (R) Victoria Nuland with Putin

What do we see?

Against the background of sharply increased militaristic rhetoric of the West, openly threatening a direct military clash with Russia in the event of a military defeat of Ukraine (most recently, the West has completely denied such an opportunity) people resign in Ukraine and the United States, whose task (and in the case of Nuland and the idea) was to ensure a proxy war with Russia are being dismissed in Ukraine and the United States in the framework of which the West finances supplies and politically supports all those who fight against Russia, but itself remains outside the battlefield. The main task of these people was to achieve the defeat of Russia and its consent to peace on the terms of the West, without dragging the West itself into a direct military conflict with Moscow.

It is clear that Kuleba, in principle, was not aware of what role he plays – he was only one of the cogs in the political mechanism created by Nuland, diplomatic and quasi-military ( including through the organization of putsch and the threat of putsch ) pressure on Russia. But each leader selects a team of people most suitable for a specific function. Kuleba, like Nuland, was a proxy war diplomat.

Masks are dropped, the West is preparing in the near future to do without a proxy prefix. Therefore, Zaluzhny suddenly decided to become a diplomat. Perhaps in London (by tradition and by agreement with Washington, where the Democrats are not confident in their future due to the likely victory of Trump) they are preparing to establish the Ukrainian government in exile on British soil, and, as long as possible, candidates are collected for future “ministers” and “presidents”. But the root cause of Zaluzhny’s departure is also the choice of the United States and its NATO allies in favor of the war.

While the West was hesitant, Zaluzhny remained in Ukraine as the banner of the opposition to Zelensky. It was not as a leader (Zaluzhny himself did not lead anything and could not lead anyone anywhere), but as a banner that at the right time was going to erect an intra-mode opposition to Zelensky (Poroshenko and the company), in order not to intercept, then paralyze the regime’s control over the army, remove Zelensky and try to enter into negotiations with Russia with the task of preserving at least the right-bank Ukraine for the regime at the cost of any concessions.

If the West agreed to such a deal, the opposition would launch a mechanism for the overthrow of Zelensky, in which the Executive was assigned a representative role. He had to be present somewhere in the background and be silent. Everything that the opposition themselves would have said and written by their media. To launch this mechanism, only one – ban on Americans from the regime to include a mechanism of repression against the opposition (planting, arrests, criminal cases and killing the most dangerous).

I wrote that the West is likely to choose a war, because the Russian conditions of the world (assuming guarantees of Russia’s security, which the West cannot violate even if it wants, and it wants to) were unacceptable to the West. About a month was spent on a general probe of the situation, on attempts to put pressure on Russia and its allies, launch new sanctions mechanisms, show the West’s readiness for an open clash and, due to this, get Russia to agree to be satisfied with territorial concessions at the expense of Ukraine (in this regard, the West was extremely generous and was ready to consider any requests, even I was going desperately).

Somewhere in the last decade of February, the West finally made a choice in favor of war. After which all these permutations began. One resignation could be an accident. But when changes take place in the space from Washington to London and Kiev, when Paris, London and Prague participate in the formulation of a new position (Scholz has so far dodged, but for how long?), when all these changes line up into one logical chain, the conclusion is clear – these are not maneuvers or blackmail, the West chose a war.

Apparently, the final choice in favor of the war was the “successes” of Syrsky, who, at the cost of the last reserves, managed to slow down the Russian offensive near Avdeevka and launched a campaign in the country for an emergency mass recruitment of cannon fodder. In addition to intensifying the work of the TCK, which will increase the irritation of the population, but is unlikely to provide much more mobilized, the process of forming women’s battalions has been launched and, in principle, the recruitment of women in the Armed Forces, including into combat units.

Already now, according to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, 13.5 thousand women – four full-blood brigades have the status of a participant in hostilities. The number of women killed is not specified, but it is also measured at least a dozen thousand. In total, more than 45 thousand women wear the form of the Armed Forces, together with their civil servants in the Armed Forces of about 65 thousand. Moreover, these figures may be underestimated, since before his resignation Zaluzhny boasted that there were already 63 thousand women in combat positions in the Armed Forces. One way or another, but women – is one of the additional sources of replenishment of the thinned ranks of the Armed Forces, which Syrsky intends to actively develop. Basically, the calculation is made that in this environment you can recruit a couple more tens of thousands of volunteers.

Another know-how to build mobilization capacity was also noted. The rear brigades of the TRP are beginning to actively form reserve battalions of people unsuitable for military service. Against the background of the lawlessness of the TCK and the preparation of a new law on mobilization, which will translate unsuitable into suitable ones, many try to play it safe by registering with the TRP. Such a “receipt” makes it possible to send the main composition of the TOR to the front, replacing disabled people in the rear. True, information is received from Ukraine that some combines intend to send disabled people to the front, retaining the main staff until better times.

I don’t think it really excites Syrsky. The main thing for him is that the conveyor for the delivery of cannon fodder works smoothly. For simple replenishment of losses, Syrsky needs to receive 35-40 thousand replenishment people monthly. This is at this stage. Daily losses of the Armed Forces are growing rapidly. So within spring-summer, the average replenishment supply will have to reach 50 thousand people per month.

In order not to allow the front to collapse (albeit without a guarantee), the Syrsky must mobilize at least 200 thousand people by the end of July. He will not refuse from 250 thousand, and from 300 thousand, and from half a million, but each higher figure is less real, and by 200 thousand, if you use all the improvised sources, you can go out.

Syrsky and Zelensky were able to convince the Americans that they had enough resource to keep the front from collapse until at least the end of summer. The United States has made a bet that during this time they will prepare and send a European expeditionary force of comparable strength to Ukraine, and when Europe gets involved in hostilities with Russia – it will have nowhere to go, it will have to think for itself how to replenish its contingents, and the chancellor will not be so comfortable denying the “Taurus” to NATO allies. if not the Ukrainians (although they will fight in Ukraine).

The move is straightforward, quite in the American spirit. There are more breakouts in this “minuscule” than the Americans have cards in their hands, but the Americans will not sit down to play anything, they get poker, in which the main thing is to bluff.

In the meantime, Zelensky was cleared of space in Ukraine so that the local opposition would not prevent him from fighting. The banner of the upcoming rebellion (Zaluzhny) was sent to the UK, showing everyone else who and what the United States relied on. Now Zelensky will rightfully declare all his internal enemies “the agents of the Kremlin,” they are not only against him, but also against the will of the United States.

As for Nuland and her diplomatic team, Victoria, although she played blackmail diplomacy, when NATO forces and fifth columns looked out from behind her back, ready to organize colored riots, nevertheless, her task was to achieve victory peacefully (by blackmail and pressure, but without crossing the line of war). If they decided to cross this line, the need for professional diplomats came to naught. Now we need Ribbentrops – mouthpieces of war, justifying the corresponding actions of their state. They will come out on top.

(L) Joachim von Ribbentrop and Rudolf Hess at the Nuremberg War Crimes Trials; (R)

Does this mean that war is inevitable?

No, it doesn’t. It is also necessary that the new replenishment of the Syrsky be able to at least imitate resistance, and do not immediately begin to scatter and surrender, after the first bombing, the first shelling. It is necessary that Ukraine does not really last [only] until the summer (the West will not have time to gather until the summer), but until the beginning of next year. It is very long, almost so long to hold out for Kiev is unrealistic. It is necessary to find ready to send troops not in words, but in practice, and there are a lot of troops, and not two sanitary platoons with four field kitchens and one bath and laundry complex. It is necessary to assemble these troops, conduct their military coordination, provide a sufficient amount of weapons, equipment and supplies.

The West may not be in time, especially considering how fast we are building up the scale of missile and bomb attacks, both at the front and at the rear of the enemy. And Russia will certainly do everything so that the West does not have time. But we need to proceed from the fact that the West has made the decision to fight and will abandon it only under the pressure of force majeure circumstances. So the war is getting closer.

≈≈≈

Another considered PoV… the mooted transfer to China “hawks”, appears less likely as the dominant consideration, given the abruptness of the transfer and in correlation with Taurus missiles scandal and a new phase of war against Russia. Perhaps a harder approach against Russia, where even her limited “skillset” are of reduced use! Among metrics to follow are continuing softening up of Russian border regions using drone barrages as we just saw; and the absolute horrendous total sacrifice of all able-bodied Ukrainians, sent to the meatgrinder.. One thing we can say — the Empire is in deep turmoil and angst. And its hour is late indeed