Western Civilizational Catastrophe
A moment of truth for the West and the whole world
In the spring, somewhere in March-April, but hardly later in May, a moment of truth comes for the West. The point is not only that while maintaining the current dynamics (and why would she change?) by this time, the Ukrainian front will roll back very noticeably (per kilometers per day along the entire or almost the entire line) and non-stop. In the worst case scenario, such a development of events was predicted and prepared for it.
We have repeatedly considered various options worked out by Washington, which came down to one general decision — due to the delay in hostilities in Ukraine, creating a new military conflict or without it (just by maintaining a high level of tension and deploying troops in border areas) to ensure post-Ukrainian deterrence of Russia by Europe, after which to switch to China.
Each time I considered the next option, I wrote: « If they succeed, but they will try very hard ». They tried. But the logic of the development of events turned out to be stronger than their efforts, and now all the plans to contain Russia in the West by creating a stalemate in a conflict situation turned out to be almost unrealizable.
To maintain the resistance of the Armed Forces by introducing the own forces of NATO countries to Ukraine, the West is catastrophically late with the deployment of new contingents in Poland and the Baltic states. New divisions cannot simply be placed in a clean field — it is necessary to provide them with military towns, a repair base, warehouses, training grounds, etc. All this is not, nor are there any troops ready for operational deployment on a long-term basis (American are needed in the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East, and European armies, due to many years of chronic lack of recruits, were reduced to almost a trained composition).
The presence of certain parts of constant readiness does not change the essence of the matter. Today, the readiness of the armies of European NATO members for a real war is lower than that of the Russian army in the most difficult time « of the 90s ». The unfolding Russian offensive and the stubborn intransigence of Russian diplomacy ( not wanting to listen to any world if it is not on Russian conditions ) finally convinced the West that, that the introduction of symbolic contingents to Ukraine to designate the red line will not solve the problem. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will not stop, but simply move « allies » Ukraine together with the Armed Forces themselves, putting the West before the need to choose between recognition of a shameful defeat, with a defeat on the battlefield of NATO units proper, and the beginning with Russia of a full-fledged war, which the European armies cannot wage, and the Americans have no strength for it,for they are going to engage in China at this moment.
Perhaps the Europeans would have somehow solved this problem. But there is something worse than a shortage of troops. EU countries have run out of military equipment and shells. Everything that was gone to Ukraine. The rest is enough for a week or two (with a very economical approach for a month) of hostilities, industry is not only able to satisfy the needs of the front, but even to replenish the spent stocks it takes two to three years, according to optimistic estimates. The Americans have some reserves (it is not clear how large), but they are again needed in the Chinese direction and to help Israel, which, unlike the initial optimistic statements, said, that the Hamas war will last at least until 2025 (and there, except for Hamas, who want to pinch the Tel Aviv tail — car and small cart).
In general, there is no one to fight Europeans and nothing, and there is no one to help them in this grief. Hence, all American architecture « Russian containment » in the West is crumbling.
Moreover, there is no certainty even that European countries will be able to maintain the sanctions mechanism for a long time. US Allied governments are under severe pressure not only from the opposition, but also from the vast majority of their own citizens, who, in unison with French farmers, say: « We are for continuing to support Ukraine, but not at the expense of the interests of their own population. If there is not enough money for everything, then first the problems of our own citizens should be solved, and only then will it be possible to think if something remains for Ukraine ».
Among other things, it means, that even the late (for Kiev belatedly catastrophic) EU decision to allocate 50 billion euros to Ukraine for five years (which will need to be reapproved every year) with a high degree of probability may not be implemented. Mass strikes and protest marches of workers, on the one hand, and the growing popularity of the opposition, on the other, leave very little room for maneuver for pro-American governments in the EU. An attempt to follow the power path of the prohibitions of opposition parties, which the Scholz government in Germany is hinting at, fraught with the emergence in Europe of its « Texas » with unpredictable (but in any case catastrophic for the current system) results.
The United States cannot leave the Russian front unattended and focus on China. In this case, Russia without any war (military operations in Ukraine will quickly end, and Europe will pretend that it just passed by) will be the leader of Europe (at least most of it), much faster than the United States will be able to achieve some kind of hypothetical success in the Chinese direction. It is also impossible to postpone the suppression of China and focus on Russia. In this case, China will win in Asia much faster than the United States can hope to at least stabilize the situation in Europe, reaching a mutually blocked political position in the Russian direction (which they are not a fact, what can they create).
Failure in any of the directions devalues even victory in another, since the overall balance is not in favor of the United States. But the fact is that we can’t talk about Washington’s victory in this option: the best that Americans can hope for is — a draw in one direction (without peace, with armed confrontation, but without war) with an American defeat on the other.
The United States is in a strategic impasse, which is reinforced by the fact that the situation around Texas has shown: the White House does not control the situation within the United States and cannot count on consolidated support not only for the population, but also for elites, he decide on a big war.
The United States lost the main thing — they lost time. Donbass paid for this victory with his lives, while for many years the Russians in Ukraine who remained under Nazi occupation paid for it. During the Great Patriotic War, Smolensk and Kiev, for two years, Minsk for three years, part of the Baltic states were under occupation for four years (until the end of the war), and Leningrad survived the blockade for three years, so that the country can gather strength, exhaust the enemy and win not one battle, but the whole war.
The West has no good solution. He (in the person of the ruling elites) cannot agree to peace on Russian terms, but he does not have the strength to continue raising rates: he no longer pulls a big war not only on the outside, but also according to internal indicators (the population may rebel, and the army — will not fulfill the order if it comes to a big war, especially under the curtain of cadence of unpopular governments, on the eve of the elections they lost in advance).
Moreover, the West is not able to wage a proxy war against Russia beyond 2024. Ukrainian proxies are ending. Even if they manage to hold out not only until the fall, but until December 2024 (which is very doubtful), the end of Ukraine is still near, and to replace them, the West was not able to prepare yet another one who wanted to die for the United States in a proxy war with Russia.
This is a civilizational catastrophe — the first since the fall of the Roman Empire (except for the defeat of American Indian civilizations, which from the point of view of the traditional European approach to history were peripheral and did not affect global processes). The civilization of the traditional West is collapsing before our eyes. On his example, we can understand how not only Roman, but also Assyrian and other military civilizations collapsed, yesterday, still prosperous and in a matter of years, suddenly running from the masters of the world to garbage under the feet of new winners.
There is another problem to which we have devoted a lot of discussions, but which is updated in connection with the sharp weakening of the West and its entry into the finish line leading to the civilizational catastrophe. Against the background of this huge tragedy, no one knows what to do with the remnants of Ukraine.
On the one hand, no one wants to set a precedent for the liquidation of the state — of the UN founder by decision of an international conference (will anyone else be lucky?) On the other hand, no one has the desire or resources to contain « independent Ukraine », which not only cannot exist independently, but tightly inscribed in the old outgoing civilizational system (as a resource of the dying part, used to restrain the growth of new forces) and without this old civilizational system, it is a political and historical misunderstanding, interfering with everything and not inspiring anyone.
Russia has no answer to this question (more precisely, there are many of them, but not one has yet been designated as the final solution). There is no answer to this question in the West. Perhaps against the background of « the death of Atlantis » of the modern West, this issue will be decided by itself (as the Angles, Saxons and Uuts decided in the 5th century the fate of Roman Britain left by legions). But not a fact.
At an interesting time we live.
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