Ceasefire Israel/Lebanon: the good, the bad and the very ugly
You would know that I’ve been saying that we have not seen this ceasefire document. Well, now we have it, and we have another partial document which spells out the US Guarantees for the zionist entity.
We also know that in these past few days, the zionist entity broke the ceasefire regulations on a daily basis and frequently. And did you know that the zionist entity gained more ground post ceasefire agreement than what they were able to win in all the time that they sat on their northern border and tried to invade Lebanon. Hezbollah forces did not allow them to enter.
Strategically Hezbollah won. The zionist entity could not invade and thus far the illegal zionist settlers are not able to return to their illegal settlements in the north.
Now, after the ceasefire, we get reports such as (and this one is from Marwa Osman):
After futile attempts, Israeli tanks are invading specific neighborhoods in the border Lebanese villages which their soldiers failed to enter during the battle. With Hezbollah being committed to the ceasefire, who is going to stand up to the endless Israeli aggression?
Let’s look at the document:
Full text of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon
A ceasefire between Israel and the powerful Lebanese movement Hezbollah took effect on Wednesday after both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the United States and France.
The agreement, which comprises 13 points, involves Israel withdrawing from southern Lebanon, which will enable civilians on both sides of the border to return to their homes.
Over the next 60 days, Hezbollah will remove its fighters and weapons from the area between the Blue Line – the unofficial border between Lebanon and Israel – to areas north of the Litani River.
In the south, Hezbollah fighters will be replaced with the Lebanese army who will ensure that infrastructure and weaponry are removed and cannot be rebuilt.
Announcement of a Cessation of Hostilities and Related Commitments on Enhanced Security Arrangements and Towards the Implementation of UNSCR 1701
After discussions with the governments of the republic of Lebanon (hereinafter “Lebanon”) and the state of Israel (hereinafter “Israel”), the United States of America and France understand that Lebanon and Israel seek a sustainable end to the current escalation of hostilities across the Blue Line and are each prepared to take steps to promote conditions for a permanent and comprehensive solution. These understandings reflect steps to which Israel and Lebanon are committed in order to implement fully UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1701, recognising that UNSCR 1701 also calls for full implementation of its predecessor UNSC resolutions, including “disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon”, so that the only forces authorized to carry arms in Lebanon will be the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), Internal Security Forces, Directorate of General Security, General Directorate of State Security, Lebanese Customs and Municipal Police (hereinafter “Lebanon’s official military and security forces”). To that end, the US and France understand the following:
Note: May I ask what the Lebanese and Hezbollah understand?
1. Israel and Lebanon will implement a cessation of hostilities beginning at 4am, November 27, 2024 in accordance with the commitments detailed below.
2. From 4am, November 27, 2024 forward, the Government of Lebanon will prevent Hezbollah and all other armed groups in the territory of Lebanon from carrying out any operations against Israel, and Israel will not carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets, including civilian, military or other state targets, in the territory of Lebanon by land, air or sea.
(Note: Israel is staying and they say so. They say they will stay to see that the agreement is implemented, but it is not their task. In addition, they say they may start firing again at any time of their choosing).
3. Israel and Lebanon recognise the importance of UNSCR 1701 to achieving lasting peace and security and commit to taking steps towards its full implementation, without violation.
4. These commitments do not preclude either Israel or Lebanon from exercising their inherent right of self-defence, consistent with international law.
5. Without prejudice to the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil) and its responsibilities, or to commitments in UNSCR 1701 and its predecessor resolutions, Lebanon’s official military and security forces, infrastructure and weaponry will be the only armed groups, arms and related materiel deployed in the southern Litani area shown in the attached LAF Deployment Plan (hereinafter “the Southern Litani Area”).
6. Consistent with UNSCR 1701 and its predecessor resolutions, in order to prevent the re-establishment and rearmament of non-state armed groups in Lebanon, any sales or supply of arms and related materiel into Lebanon will be regulated and controlled by the Government of Lebanon. Additionally, all production of arms and related materiel within Lebanon will be regulated and controlled by the Government of Lebanon.
Note: Again the Government of Lebanon is tasked to control this but yet, Israel has taken it upon themselves to start implementing their own control. As you will see they have guarantees to act with impunity.
7. In order to implement UNSCR 1701, and upon the commencement of the cessation of hostilities according to paragraph one, the Government of Lebanon will provide all necessary authorities, including freedom of movement, to Lebanon’s official military and security forces, and instruct them, consistent with UNSCR 1701 and its predecessor resolutions to:
a. Monitor and enforce against any unauthorized entry of arms and related materiel into and throughout Lebanon, including through all border crossings, and against the unauthorized production of arms and materiel within Lebanon.
b. Starting with the Southern Litani Area, dismantle all existing unauthorised facilities involved in the production of arms and related materiel, and prevent the establishment of such facilities in the future.
c. Starting with the Southern Litani Area, dismantle all infrastructure and military positions, and confiscate all unauthorised arms inconsistent with these commitments.
8. The US and France intend to work within the Military Technical Committee for Lebanon (MTC4L) to enable and achieve a total LAF deployment of 10,000 soldiers to southern Lebanon as soon as possible. Further, the US and France intend to work with the international community to support the LAF as appropriate to achieve such an increase in its deployment levels in Lebanon and to improve its capabilities.
Note: Can you see how this is an attempt to control the Lebanese forces? Whereas the strength in military ability in Lebanon lies within Hezbollah?
9. Upon the commencement of the cessation of hostilities according to paragraph one, and without prejudice to Unifil and its mandate and responsibilities in UNSCR 1701 and its predecessor resolutions, Israel and Lebanon resolve, in co-ordination with Unifil, to reformulate and enhance the tripartite mechanism (hereinafter: “the Mechanism”). The reformulated and enhanced Mechanism, hosted by Unifil, chaired by the US, and including France, will monitor, verify, and assist in ensuring enforcement of these commitments.
Note: Can you see how this is an attempt to control Unifil? Unifil here played a productive role, which is to my knowledge the first time that I saw a peacekeeping force from the UN actually fulfil its mandate. We now have whispers of the notorious White Helmets being deployed again.
a. Israel and Lebanon will cooperate with and facilitate the work of the Mechanism and will ensure their safety.
b. The Mechanism will work with the MTC4L to strengthen the capacity and training of the LAF to inspect and dismantle unauthorized sites and infrastructure, above and below ground, confiscate unauthorized weapons, and prevent the presence of unauthorized armed groups.
c. Alongside the Mechanism’s work, Unifil’s work pursuant to its mandate will continue, including the efforts Unifil supports through its convening role that enhances the Mechanism’s effectiveness.
10. Israel and Lebanon will report any alleged violations to the Mechanism and Unifil without prejudice to their respective rights to communicate directly with the UN Security Council. The Mechanism will develop appropriate procedures to consult, inspect, gather information, and assist in ensuring the enforcement of these commitments.
Note: Lebanon has thus far reported 32 violations since the cease-fire began early last Wednesday, including repeated shelling of towns in southern Lebanon, as per Lebanese media reports. Bear in mind there were no Israeli tanks in the area before the ceasefire. The Zionists immediately pulled into the area with tanks.
11. Upon the commencement of the cessation of hostilities according to paragraph one, Lebanon will deploy its official military and security forces to all borders, and to all regulated and non-regulated land, air and sea border crossings. In addition, the LAF will deploy forces, set road blocks and checkpoints on all the roads and bridges along the line delineating the Southern Litani Area.
Note: The Lebanese Forces now belong to Israel, the US and France in reality. Luckily, they are a worthless force.
12. Upon the commencement of the cessation of hostilities according to paragraph one, Israel will withdraw its forces in a phased manner south of the Blue Line, and in parallel the LAF will deploy to positions in the Southern Litani Area shown in the attached LAF Deployment Plan, and will commence the implementation of its obligations under the commitments, including the dismantling of unauthorised sites and infrastructure and confiscating unauthorised arms and related materiel. The Mechanism will co-ordinate execution by the Israel Defence Forces and LAF of the specific and detailed plan for the phased withdrawal and deployment in these areas, which should not exceed 60 days.
13. Israel and Lebanon request that the US – with the partnership of the UN – facilitate indirect negotiations between Israel and Lebanon with the objective of resolving remaining disputed points along the Blue Line, consistent with resolution 1701.
The US and France understand that the above commitments will be accepted by Israel and Lebanon concurrently with this announcement.
These commitments strive to enable civilians on both sides of the Blue Line to return safely to their lands and homes. The US and France further intend to lead international efforts to support capacity-building and economic development throughout Lebanon to advance stability and prosperity in this region.
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The reality is that the Lebanese of the area are prohibited to fully return to their homes, and the Zionist forces are in with tanks and soldiers where they could not move before and are owning the space.
I do not understand why Lebanon signed this agreement and I not understand why Hezbollah allowed it. In reality, Israel gained the territory between the Blue Line and the Litani River, without firing a further shot.
There is a twist in this tale. There were further guarantees to Israel by the United States. We have a partial document.
As you can see from this, Israel now holds all the cards and they may do as they wish. Indeed they are doing as they wish, and from what was a winning hand strategically, Hezbollah with the help of the Lebanese government now has a losing hand. Zion has no intention to leave the area and the Greater Israel plan is in full swing.
I do not know why Lebanon signed up to this agreement with the non-agreement capable. We knew, or thought we knew, that this ending of hostilities would make provision for Gaza. There is no such provision. We hear that Egypt is talking to zion today, to attempt a peace agreement for Gaza. In the meantime, the wholesale killing of the Palestinians continue, hour by hour and day by day. New news is that US mercenary firms are competing for ‘huge contracts’ to control security in north Gaza.
Infamous Pentagon contractors Constellis and Orbis are the front-runners to take over for the Israeli army once the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in north Gaza comes to a halt. From The Cradle News Desk
As we know, there are announcements from the US that Trump supposedly wants the Gaza war to be at an end at the time of his inauguration.
It is difficult to understand why the Lebanese government sold Hezbollah out and placed themselves right back in the pockets of the evil. There is no other way in which I can consider this ceasefire document. We are however in Word War III territory. I would expect to see a wide and horrible conflagration break loose in the area with Turkey possibly fighting for NATO. This is why I call this the first BRICS war, as BRICS will have great headwinds with such a conflagration. In Syria, they are already fighting not only against the Syrians but also against the Russian airforce.
The opening of the gates to the Rent-a-Jihadi mobs in Syria is firstly to have some assurance that Hezbollah cannot receive weapons from Syria. But we also see in the guarantee document that the eyes are on Iran. Further we see a new front opening against Russia.
I hope there is another view here and mine is wrong. Scott Ritter supplied another view and thank-you for this Scott!
The offensive against Aleppo initiated by Turkish-allied Islamists from Hayat Tahir Al-Sham (a re-branded Al Qaeda that has made common cause with ISIS) and the US-allied Syrian National Army is the consequence of a strategic plan between the Israelis and Turks, backed by the US, to cut off the supply route from Iran to Lebanon for Hezbollah, and threaten to destabilize/topple the Assad government, forcing Russia to divert resources from Ukraine to salvage their position in Syria. Ukraine has provided advisors to the anti-Assad militants on drone warfare. Israel has apparently extended its explosive pager/radio scheme into Syria as well, disrupting Syrian tactical command and control at a critical moment in the fighting.
Note: In the end, this was false information as a result of the ongoing Hasbara informational attack.
Syria had largely demobilized, and Hezbollah had mostly returned to Lebanon. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are ill prepared to contain this assault.
It is highly likely Aleppo will fall to the pro-Turkish Islamist forces. There will most likely be a concerted effort, led by Russia and Iran, to salvage the situation in Syria.
This will take time.
This offensive may threaten the ceasefire in Lebanon.
The biggest loser in all of this is Turkey and its President, Recep Erdogan.
This offensive could not have been carried out without close cooperation and coordination with Israel and the US.
Erdogan’s critical words against Israel have been exposed as empty rhetoric.
Erdogan has once again betrayed Russia.
And his support for Palestine has been exposed as fraudulent in every way.
Russia and Iran will stabilize Syria.
This will take months.
Syria and its allies will destroy the Islamist stronghold in Idlib.
This will take years.
The Iran-Hezbollah supply line will be restored/maintained.
Israel will be defeated.
And the US will withdraw from Syria, probably in mid-2025.
And Turkey will continue to betray everyone it does business with, because Erdogan stands only for Turkey.
AHH, Grieved, you both speak truth and I don’t kick against it.
May I get my hands on Sinwar’s Stick!
No one serious trusts the Yanks and Frenchie as honest mediators. How can they, lacking the capacity of any basic trust! That the Lebanese government rushed to accept a paper guaranteed to be betrayed was also known in advance. A bought compradore is a bought compradore. Last, even the preceding… Read more »
It is difficult to understand why the Lebanese government sold Hezbollah out and placed themselves right back in the pockets of the evil. There is no other way in which I can consider this ceasefire document. Amarynth, Lebanon sold out Hezbollah because this is what Lebanon does. Tragically, there is nothing… Read more »
Well said. There are such layers to this, that those of us outside cannot even comprehend. One is the nature of war itself, within a wracked and wrecked region. Stop-go, stop-go. How to prevent a crazed dying messianic paradigm from taking all with it?? You must give it periodical reprieve… Read more »