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The Hegemon Will Go Full Hybrid War Against BRICS+

The Hybrid War 2.0 against the Global South has not even started. Swing states, you have all been warned.

By Pepe Escobar and first posted at Strategic Culture

U.S. Think Tank Land hacks are not exactly familiar with Montaigne: “On the highest throne in the world, we still sit only on our own bottom.”

Hubris leads these specimens to presume their flaccid bottoms are placed high above anyone else’s. The result is that a trademark mix of arrogance and ignorance always ends up unmasking the predictability of their forecasts.

U.S. Think Tank Land – inebriated by their self-created aura of power – always telegraphs in advance what they’re up to. That was the case with Project 9/11 (“We need a new Pearl Harbor”). That was the case with the RAND report on over-extending and unbalancing Russia. And now that’s the case with the incoming

American War on BRICS as outlined by the chairman of the New York-based Eurasia Group.

It’s always painful to suffer through the intellectually shallow Think Thank Land wet dreams masquerading as “analyses” but in this particular case key Global South players need to be firmly aware of what awaits them.

Predictably, the whole “analysis” revolves around the imminent, devastating humiliation to the Hegemon and its vassals: what happens next in country 404, also known – for now – as Ukraine.

Brazil, India, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia are dismissed as “four major fence-sitters” when it comes to the U.S./NATO proxy war against Russia. It’s the same old “you’re with us or against us” trope.

But then we are presented with the six major Global South culprits: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey.

In yet another crude, parochial remix of a catch phrase referring to the American elections, these are qualified as the key swing states the Hegemon will need to seduce, cajole, intimidate and threaten to assure its dominance of the “rules-based international order”.

Saudi Arabia and South Africa are added to a previous report focused on the “four major fence sitters”.

The swing state manifesto notes that all of them are G-20 members and “active in both geopolitics and geoeconomics” (Oh really? Now that’s some breaking news). What it does not say is that three of them are BRICS members (Brazil, India, South Africa) and the other three are serious candidates to join BRICS+: deliberations will be turbo-charged in the upcoming BRICS summit in South Africa in August.

So it’s clear what the swing state manifesto is all about: a call to arms for the American war against the BRICS.

So BRICS packs no punch

The swing state manifesto harbors wet dreams of near-shoring and friend-shoring moving away from China. Nonsense: enhanced intra-BRICS+ trade will be the order of the day from now on, especially with the expanded practice of trade in national currencies (see Brazil-China or within ASEAN), the first step towards widespread de-dollarization.

The swing states are characterized as “not a new incarnation” of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), or “other groupings dominated by the Global South, such as the G-77 and BRICS.”

Talk about exponential nonsense. This is all about BRICS+ – which now has the tools (including the NDB, the BRICS bank) to do what NAM could never accomplish during the Cold War: establish the framework of a new system bypassing Bretton Woods and the interlocking coercion mechanisms of the Hegemon.

As for stating that BRICS has not “packed much punch” that only reveals U.S. Think Tank Land’s cosmic ignorance of what BRICS + is all about.

The position of India is only considered in terms of being a Quad member – defined as a “U.S.-led effort to balance China”. Correction: contain China.

As for the “choice” of swing states of choosing between the U.S. and China on semiconductors, AI, quantum technology, 5G and biotechnology, that’s not about “choice”, but to what level they are able to sustain Hegemon pressure to demonize Chinese technology.

Pressure on Brazil, for instance, is much heavier than on Saudi Arabia or Indonesia.

In the end though, it all comes back to the Straussian neocon obsession: Ukraine. The swing states, in varying degrees, are guilty of opposing and/or undermining the sanctions dementia. Turkey, for instance, is accused of channeling “dual-use” items to Russia. Not a word on the U.S. financial system viciously forcing Turkish banks to stop accepting Russian MIR payment cards.

On the wishful thinking front, this pearl stands out among many: “The Kremlin seems to believe it can make a living by turning its trade south and east.”

Well, Russia is already making an excellent living all across Eurasia and a vast expanse of the Global South.

The economy has re-started (drivers are domestic tourism, machine building and the metals industry); inflation is at only 2.5% (lower than anywhere in the EU); unemployment is at only 3.5%; and head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said that by 2024 growth will be back to pre-SMO levels.

U.S. Think Tankland is congenitally incapable of understanding that even if BRICS+ nations may still have some serious trade credit issues to iron out, Moscow has already shown how even an implied hard backing of a currency can turn out to be an instant game changer. Russia is at the same time backing not only the ruble but also the yuan.

Meanwhile, the Global South de-dollarization caravan moves on relentlessly – as much as the proxy war hyenas may keep howling in the dark. When the full – staggering – scale of NATO’s humiliation in Ukraine unfolds, arguably by mid-summer, the de-dollarization high-speed train will be fully booked, non-stop.

“Offer you can’t refuse” rides again

If all of the above was not already silly enough, the swing state manifesto doubles down on the nuclear front, accusing them of “future (nuclear) proliferation risks”: especially – who else – Iran.

By the way, Russia is defined as a “middle power, but one in decline”. And “hyper-revisionist” to boot. Oh dear: with “experts” like this, the Americans don’t even need enemies.

And yes, by now you may be excused to roar with laughter: China is accused of attempting to direct and co-opt BRICS. The “suggestion” – or “offer you can’t refuse”, Mafia-style – to the swing states is that you cannot join a “Chinese-directed, Russian-assisted body actively opposing the United States.”

The message is unmistakable: “The threat of a Sino-Russian co-optation of an expanded BRICS—and through it, of the global south—is real, and it needs to be addressed.”

And here are the recipes to address it. Invite most swing states to the G-7 (that was a miserable failure). “More high-level visits by key U.S. diplomats” (welcome to cookie distributor Vicky Nuland). And last but not least, Mafia tactics, as in a “nimbler trade strategy that begins to crack the nut of access to the U.S. market.”

The swing state manifesto could not but let the Top Cat out of the bag, predicting, rather praying that “U.S.-China tensions rise dramatically and turn into a Cold War-style confrontation.” That’s already happening – unleashed by the Hegemon.

So what would be the follow-up? The much sought after and spun-to-death “decoupling”, forcing the swing states to “align more closely with one side or the other”. It’s “you’re with us or against us” all over again.

So there you go. Raw, in the flesh – with inbuilt veiled threats. The Hybrid War 2.0 against the Global South has not even started. Swing states, you have all been warned.

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AHH
Admin
AHH
8 months ago
Reply to  amarynth

Thank God everyone in the world outside the R of BRICS+ is superfluous. The Empire is completely exposed and prostrate in front of Russia. And it will be dictated to. If it chooses suicide, it will be accommodated. All these wilting wussy fence-sitters achieve is loss of self-esteem and self-respect.… Read more »

Wilting wussy Fence-sitters.jpg
archeon
archeon
8 months ago
Reply to  AHH

AHH, I disagree with both you and Amarynth. Was not Russia sitting on the fence for 8 years while Donbass was being attacked and Ukraine was being armed and trained by NATO? Russia needed time to lay down the foundations that led to today,s success. Emotion played no part in… Read more »

Brunno
8 months ago
Reply to  archeon

Perfect.

emersonreturn
8 months ago
Reply to  archeon

i disagree, dear, archeon. firstly, russia was not sitting back, she was preparing, those deep ammunition stocks, the new stunning weapons, all needed to completed, perfected, as well as the planning, every possible deviation permeation, all visited & resolved. russia was feverishly preparing this miracle while reeling yet from the… Read more »

emersonreturn
8 months ago
Reply to  amarynth

yes, putin’s 2007 speech was historical. immediately we all roused ourselves, knowing the world had a new leader.

archeon
archeon
8 months ago
Reply to  emersonreturn

Emersonreturn, very well said. China was given the West’s golden goose on a platter in the form of their industrial base. Russia received no such largess, so I rate team Russia ahead of team China, although by lifting 1 billion out of poverty, belt and road, etc China restored my… Read more »

archeon
archeon
8 months ago
Reply to  amarynth

Amarynth, this is not that. Step back and look again at the big picture. An old, tired Empire is self destructing, as all Empires must. We will survive or we will not. But then the real work starts. AI, bio-weapons, biodiversity loss, inequality and so on. These are global problems… Read more »

HT
HT
8 months ago
Reply to  archeon

Archeon makes a good point. Russia bided its time to “lay down the foundations that led to today’s success”. Other countries are doing the same. Most notably PRC, even though it’s clear that it is siding with Russia behind closed doors. For some countries, it may not be the right… Read more »

HT
HT
8 months ago
Reply to  HT

In hindsight, calling Russia ‘fence sitting’ may not be the best way to phrase what Russia was doing from 2014.

archeon
archeon
8 months ago
Reply to  HT

HT, good point, I could have chosen my words with more care. I do not think Russia was sitting on the fence. But if I was sitting in the Donbass under constant shelling, desperate for relief from Russia and not knowing when or if it would come, Russia did not… Read more »

emersonreturn
8 months ago
Reply to  HT

i agree, ht, you are very correct, the middle way is the wisest, one small niggling occasion where it mightn’t be, regarding india & her being invited to waltz around the south china sea is o/c very dangerous, treacherously so. being a friend, ally or heaven forefend a member of… Read more »

AHH
Admin
AHH
8 months ago
Reply to  archeon

What gives archeon? You are usually more nuanced than this. This is a little convivial [non-woke] blog wafting in the aether! We do not represent His Excellency the Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Sergey Viktorovich Lavrov. (although we walk his way, no?) So how could we be slighting anyone??… Read more »

archeon
archeon
8 months ago
Reply to  AHH

AHH, we are on the same side, to disagree on tactics is not an attack on your integrity which I do not question in the least. I disagree with your tactics because I do not think they will work. The Empire is destroying it’s self and will continue to do… Read more »

emersonreturn
8 months ago

yes, unquestionably, we must respect each other. knowing we shall receive none from empire, for empire gives nothing but lend lease documents & in return demands all our treasuries along with slavish subservience. now, today & possibly for years, on this it’s agreed best not to rush & push, we… Read more »

AHH
Admin
AHH
8 months ago
Reply to  emersonreturn

“the challenge for the Rest is to ensure empire continues drinking its own special vomit sufficiently longer that it will finally fall to its knees & die!” Well put. This is what I neglected to say. We were satisfied with fence-sitters to play this diplomatic role of soothing Empire, of… Read more »

emersonreturn
8 months ago
Reply to  AHH

ahh, i apologize, strangely i didn’t receive a notification & only glanced in when i was checking amarynth’s new posts. fence sitters take heed! there comes a time…indeed. it has arrived our walk along armageddon’s edge. fence sitters whether knowingly or not, we have all chosen, for decades this moment… Read more »

Lone Wolf
8 months ago

Wow!

Whatever happened here?

Are there any survivors? Should I call an ambulance?

It looks like a version of “you’re with me or against me” in steroids.

Will be back later, once the environment has cooled off a bit.

Lone Wolf

Lone Wolf
8 months ago
Reply to  amarynth

@ Amarynth That was meant as a joke, not a judgment. Guess I am getting the wake of the “passionate conversation”? I believe your comment, followed by AHH’s, set the tone for what could have been the usual productive follow up to every one of Pepe’s article. It would have… Read more »

archeon
archeon
8 months ago
Reply to  amarynth

Amarynth, thank you. As a child born in 57 I loved cowboy and Indian movies, with toy holsters, 6 shooters, waistcoats and hats we innocently slaughtered savages all the day long. No one explained our immature brains were being hot wired to believe that we were exceptional and entitled. That… Read more »

archeon
archeon
8 months ago
Reply to  amarynth

Amarynth, China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, South Africa are all strong countries who have previously paid the price of being weak. They all have organically home grown power structures which enjoy broad support among citizens which outside interference only makes stronger. They all invest in their human potential through… Read more »

archeon
archeon
8 months ago
Reply to  amarynth

Amarynth, South Africa was meant to be on the list of weak countries, power cuts here on the island and I lost my first attempt, hurried the 2nd, never a good idea. Your work is important and I have some inkling of the huge effort it must take, I should… Read more »

archeon
archeon
8 months ago
Reply to  Lone Wolf

Lone Wolf, wilting wussy fence sitter.

xvfsb
xvfsb
8 months ago

“By the way, Russia is defined as a ‘middle power, but one in decline’”. LoL. The Russian “middle power in decline” is smashing a proxy nation (Ukraine) that is armed, bankrolled, and directed by the greatest military alliance in history (NATO) and the greatest nation in history (America). So what… Read more »

Last edited 8 months ago by xvfsb