The Polish ´Zeitenwende´ connection
With thanks to Jorge Vilches, the author
Germany got the memo
Open domain sources are already abundantly clear. On record, heads of state are broadly discussing the topic even in front of hundreds and with very precise input from Western think tanks. So special deeply-savvy ´Seymour Hersh´ or ´Douglas McGregor´ sourcing is not required to learn about the new US European DE-stabilization plan already underway. The idea is to establish Poland as the military & political leader of a brand new yet again US-managed Europe which would leave ´doubtfull´ Germans aside. Actually, both the US and Poland have lately actively required Germany – now desperate for energy and commodities — to get out of their way and to just obediently contribute to the new ´European´ project with Poland as steering wheel and the US in the driver´s seat. So Germans just stay put and abstain. And there were no effective means to ever achieve the above other than by cutting Germany off very cheap, high-quality and reliable supplies from a truly resourceful and energy-rich Russia. Now, after hundreds of pummeling sanctions and the NS1 & NS2 gaspipes non-sanctum sabotage, this has finally been achieved yet definitely against European and German best interests. So clear enough this time around no soup and no dice either for Germany.
the plastic carrot
But still, geopolitically and trade-wise the US so far has developed an attractive (and manageable) scenario. And this may also clearly explain the role planned out for a willing Poland – which Germans and the world at large have not yet quite understood – as part of the US strategy for the provoked Russian “invasion” of Ukraine. Because NATO losing an important chunk of Ukraine was always in the military cards. But Poland would still always end up conveniently next to the Russian border as an effective European gate-keeper and a highly destructive NATO Offense Team in every sense of the term. Viktor Orbán, the sitting Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010, is painfully aware and clearly outspoken regarding the above. Please kindly listen to Mr. Orbán´s very brief 3-minute exquisite summary at Ref. #1
Ref #2 : https://twitter.com/i/status/1652251152841338881.
Ref #7 : https://rmx.news/poland/us-air-force-moves-strategic-air-tankers-from-germany-to-poland/
Today the son of Zbigniew Brzezinski – former U.S. National Security Adviser and author of “The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives” — is the current US Ambassador to Poland. Both Mark Brzezinski and his father Zbigniew have always ardently maintained that no Eurasian challenger in any way should ever be allowed to emerge and eventually dominate Eurasia and thus challenge U.S. global pre-eminence. Clear enough?
the “Zeitenwende” watershed
Through unilateral and blatantly wrong decisions imposed by US vested interests, the current Green leadership of the German traffic-light ruling coalition has self-inflicted a needless energy crisis which will prove to be disastrous both for Germany and Europe… although to the great (supposed) “benefit” of Poland as briefly explained above. And at the same time it has allowed to miss the enormous opportunity for Germany to become a 21st. century world-leading nation as the outstanding bond between Europe and Eurasia… instead of turning into an obsolete vassal state at the mercy of colonial-minded, basement-crazy,´ exorbitantly privileged´ neo-con Atlanticists eternally dollar-indebted with impunity, unipolar and exceptionalistic with “(their) rules-based world” and 750 US military bases in 80 countries plus.
Ref #8: https://www.statista.com/topics/2171/armed-forces-of-the-united-states/
Ref #9 : https://consortiumnews.com/2023/05/01/john-pilger-the-coming-war-time-to-speak-up/ (*)
accountability
Even worse, chances are that Germany may turn itself into a poorly-developed, over-populated and highly polluted society with no gravity upon the rest of the world. In such case Germans at large should know and fully accept that their Greens did not do this all by themselves but rather with a very broadly-based German political base. So yet once more Germans should only blame themselves for their astonishing defeat. No, Germany´s current messy mess is not about Russia or Russians and it is not about Ukraine or Ukranians. Actually, it is about German politics and its “360 degree” fecal-grade leadership which comfy Germans agree to be governed by as if nothing had ever been concluded despite their historical experience in the twentieth century. Meanwhile, Poland enjoys the scene and prepares for its US-dictated role as leader of the “new” Europe as if this were the “Zeitenwende” sea-change Germany was to expect after the now infamous speech delivered to the Bundestag by Chancellor Olaf Scholz on 27 February 2022.
Lady Luck
So far Germany has taken gorgeous advantage from Lady Luck, but pushing her charms is not a sustainable strategy as Germans found out the hard way decades ago. In December 1944 another pro-Nazi leadership surprised friends and foes by pursuing the Battle of the Bulge basing themselves 100% on having continuous (indefinite ?) bad weather to cover the Wehrmacht from ruthless bombing by hundreds of enemy planes. Per a Pareto & Murphy historical combination, a partially reasonable weather came sooner rather than later, the skies cleared somewhat, and the German forces were massacred beyond repair leaving “ Germans down, Americans in and Russians out “ till today. Now back to the future with “ Russians and Germans OUT & Americans and Poles IN ”.
The German Zeitenwende ´miracle´ requires
- eternal mild weather
The 2022-2023 winter has been abnormally mild throughout Europe — Germany included — but this should not be considered as part of a successful thought-out strategy. Mind you, a hot summer can also trigger very high energy demand and next winter will be whatever, but not necessarily mild. In either case, the impact of Germany´s painful energy deficit would spread throughout European supply chains leaving behind very nasty consequences throughout.
Ref # 10 : https://globalsouth.co/2022/10/06/the-ns1-and-ns2-sabotage-impact-potential/
Ref # 11: https://thesaker.is/how-bright-are-europeans/
The German Zeitenwende ´miracle´ requires
- non-compliant dirty fuels
Germany has been mitigating the consequences of supporting the EU’s wrongful Russian sanction policies by producing far less with dirtier fuels, most especially lignite coal the dirtiest of them all. And besides its obscene price and many other practical, security, scarcity, and investment problems, fracked LNG is not exactly an environmental virgin vestal either despite the constant spin from the German Greens, a shameful lot by any standards. Deep and permanent non-compliance with the EU blackish ´Green´ (!!) Plan is absolutely mandatory under these circumstances.
Ref # 12 : https://thesaker.is/germanys-failing-stored-nat-gas-lng-experiment/
The German Zeitenwende ´miracle´ requires
- a far lower standard of living
Today in Germany the quality of life keeps getting lower and lower by the hour affecting both the goods produced and/or services rendered to local and foreign consumers. The German GDP will unavoidably keep decreasing with deficit spending through sanctions, immigration and military expenses to “defend” Germany from supposed enemies. This means spiraling inflation and runaway costs, DE-industrialization which means shutdowns with UN-employment.
Cut off supply chains that took decades to develop will continue with irreversibly harmed logistics, costs & availability.
The German Zeitenwende ´miracle´ requires
- unsustainable subsidies & money printing
Of course, massive government subsidies have helped out but there is no free lunch so someone is paying for them very dearly… or printing (supposed) “money” with impunity. Also a far lower 2022-2023 demand from China helped out to keep prices lower than what they should be and with supplies still available. But China´s demand will not remain lower forever and as a matter of fact is now rising steadily. The BRICS+ will be trading amongst themselves using their own currencies (or gold), but not euros or dollars. The coming Zeitenwende will be rough on Germany and Germans can feel it already.
The German Zeitenwende ´miracle´ implies
- negative impact of harmful nat-gas variations
Before 2022 for decades Germany enjoyed continuous, pure, ultra high quality, cheap, reliable, predictable, constant supply of Russian pipeline nat-gas. German industry and homes expected and received nothing else. Now Germany can only have a hot-podge of LNG sourcing of DIS-continuous and varying, dirty, low “fracked” quality, ULTRA expensive, NON-uniform, intermittent, highly risky and UN-predictable supply of “something” resembling nat-gas.
This affects the proper functioning (or direct ruining) of any and every nat-gas fueled device or piece of equipment or installation in Germany and other Northern European countries which for decades have been conceived, designed, manufactured, fine-tuned, installed, contracted, serviced and guaranteed on the basis of receiving exclusively pure Russian nat-gas and/or Russian Ural oil blend specifications for German refineries — such as Schwedt — and not anything else. Let alone a variable-quality, DIS-continuous feedstock of any sort be it nat-gas, oil to be refined, diesel-type fuels, gasoline… or whichever petroleum products. Otherwise the Zeitenwende cost for Germany should and will be un-bearable. The never-ending dramatic situation at the key German Schwedt Refinery is irrefutable evidence thereof. And don´t trust me, just google it in depth.
(*) Ref #9: https://consortiumnews.com/2023/05/01/john-pilger-the-coming-war-time-to-speak-up/
per John Pilger´s article
“I believe in American exceptionalism with every fibre of my being” said Obama, who expanded a favourite presidential pastime, bombing, and death squads known as “special operations” as no other president had done since the first Cold War.
According to a Council on Foreign Relations survey, in 2016 Obama dropped 26,171 bombs. That is 72 bombs every day. He bombed the poorest people and people of colour: in Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, Somalia, Syria, Iraq, Pakistan.
Every Tuesday — reported The New York Times — he personally selected those who would be murdered by hellfire missiles fired from drones. Weddings, funerals, shepherds were attacked, along with those attempting to collect the body parts festooning the “terrorist target.” The NATO bombing plunged Libya into a humanitarian disaster, killing thousands of people and displacing hundreds of thousands more, transforming Libya from the African country with the highest standard of living into a war-torn failed state. Under Obama, the U.S. extended secret “special forces” operations to 138 countries or 70 percent of the world’s population. The first African-American president launched what amounted to a full-scale invasion of Africa.
Reminiscent of the Scramble for Africa in the 19th century, the U.S. African Command (Africom) has since built a network of supplicants among collaborative African regimes eager for American bribes and armaments. Africom’s “soldier to soldier” doctrine embeds U.S. officers at every level of command from general to warrant officer. Only pith helmets are missing.
At the same time, Obama placed missiles in Eastern Europe aimed at Russia. It was the beatified recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize who increased spending on nuclear warheads to a level higher than that of any U.S. administration since the Cold War – having promised, in an emotional speech in the centre of Prague in 2009, to “help rid the world of nuclear weapons.”
Obama and his administration knew full well that the coup his assistant secretary of state, Victoria Nuland, was sent to oversee against the government of Ukraine in 2014 would provoke a Russian response and probably lead to war. And so it has.”
John Pilger has twice won Britain’s highest award for journalism and has been International Reporter of the Year, News Reporter of the Year and Descriptive Writer of the Year. He has made 61 documentary films and has won an Emmy, a BAFTA and the Royal Television Society prize. His Cambodia Year Zero is named as one of the ten most important films of the 20th century.
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Awesome work Jorge… great to see you here! And the question of German awareness of their occupied status is a very vexing question and comes up constantly amongst my Friday afternoon coffee club discussion group that meets for 3-4 hours and discusses a wide range of topics that all come… Read more »
Happy to see Jorge articles again. After having spent years around The Saker, with its closing, I thought I was never going to find the place where all those people (writers and the people commenting) ended up. But here we are, it looks like the whole bunch moved here. Placer… Read more »
Oh I agree 100% Alejo ! All I am saying is that this seems to be the “new” US game plan for Europe. But I am definetly not sure that it will be succesfull though as NATO break-up is also in the cards, possibly led by either Germany or France,… Read more »
This article was RE-published today at the Automatic Earth & Debt Rattle web sites per https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2023/05/debt-rattle-may-5-2023/
Please link to today´s latest on Germany at RT
https://www.rt.com/business/575668-german-retail-sales-plunge/
The Comments section is most valuable also.
jorge, you’ve been missed, you have a gift for braiding so many threads together, suddenly we see not simply feel the ropes which empire has attempted to bind us.
Thank you emersonreturn !
It is a pleasure to read your article Jorge.
Your insights are truly welcomed by me and I am sure many others.
Thanks JSM as your comments are much appreciated. Sure hope my thoughts and data help out for the analysis. I sure try my very best and keep at it day and night despite many personal problems.Thanks again JSM !
Thanks Jorge — wonderful to see you back in the saddle.
You’ve been greatly missed.
Thanks for your kind words Steve ! I should have added that the Schwedt refinery has now gone down to 50% of its traditional output capacity of refined oil products. Mind you, Schwedt supplies 90% of the gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil used in Berlin. This situation in… Read more »
It´s really childish (and un-professional) how often Poland is mentioned as current and future oil source for Germany at large and specifically for the Schwedt refinery. Poland does not have one single drop of oil to export (zero) so this might probably just be Russian oil. Neither is there ANY… Read more »
The data you’ve given makes me wonder if the normally dependable German people will reach breaking point and cast off the shackles. Tomorrow I’m catching up with a German friend who thinks like me, and still has connections in Berlin. We have not seen each other since the start of… Read more »
Steve, after you meet with your German friend I´d be eager to know his view about all this. I am specially fond of traditionally capable and hard-working Germans — though sometimes very naïve — and so I trust that sooner rather than later they reach (as you rightly say) ”… Read more »
I was truly happy to see Jorge Vilches in my email box with this great article. Jorge is not writing a lot these days and I miss his voice. He is a writer who thrives on feedback, so, to all our commentators here, please give him lots of feedback. Jorge… Read more »