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Editorial

Our Two-track World

Macro analyst Philip Pilkington sees global economic flows forming two tracks: fast for the developing world and slow for us.

China’s inflation is under 2%, the economy is booming, national savings are $9 trillion and diplomatic prestige is high after the Iran-Saudi rapprochement in Beijing.  Venture capitalists, many American, are pouring billions into Chinese startups, anticipating a 90%-indigenous-tech-driven boom that will dwarf Silicon Valley’s thanks to a 10x bigger market. Seven billion people in the developing world are enjoying 4%-7% GDP growth, and all see China’s contribution to that.

For us, the Golden Billion, higher interest rates have already destroyed the crypto industry, bankrupted America’s 16th largest bank, SVB, and triggered shortages everywhere. Washington lost its big power military credibility in Afghanistan and again in Ukraine, and is losing control of the narrative, thanks to a generation of  Western leaders who are resolutely destroying their own countries.

China-US trade fell 17%, to $102 billion YTD, but the US remained in the top three of China’s trading partners, with ASEAN and the EU. US-bound exports from China sank 22% to $71.56 billion, while the US sent $30 billion to China, down 5%. In contrast, trade between Russia and China grew 26% to $34 billion.   Read more …

The current value of Britain’s trade does not matter nearly so much as future growth. PWC says China will increase from 18% of the world’s GDP in 2016 to 20% in 2050, while the US would fall from 16% to 12% and the EU from 15% to 9%. Between 2015 and 2019, British exports to China grew 14% pa., while exports to the US grew 9%, and to the EU, 5% a year.  Read full article …

The Central Bank made $162 billion in profits and transferred it to the Ministry of Finance to bolster fiscal spending. The funds are mainly revenues generated by the country’s foreign exchange reserves in recent years. Read full article …

The Propaganda mill is heaving out there …

“I trust my government”
China 🇨🇳: 89%
India 🇮🇳: 76%
USA 🇺🇸: 42%
UK 🇬🇧: 37%

“My family and I will be better off in five years”
India 🇮🇳: 73%
China 🇨🇳: 65%
USA 🇺🇸: 36%
Germany 🇩🇪: 15%.  Read full article →

Please note I have not seen formal confirmation of the dates of these visits. It is clear from China sources that the next peacemaking effort will be Russia/Ukraine. It will be a tough nut to crack.

Wow: “Xi to Speak with Zelensky, Meet Next Week With Putin”.

After Iran and Saudi Arabia, now Ukraine and Russia?

That would literally be an instant new world order. And one started on peace, which would be quite a symbol!https://t.co/PD9ofNkR6Q

— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) March 13, 2023

Kindly pick this up from Godfree Robert’s substack:

Biden’s Zugzwang

Despair or Extinction?

“With only bad choices left, Washington has chosen total extinction. In a national version of suicide by cop, the US is rushing towards a war with China it cannot possibly win. ”

Enjoy some beautiful photography of tea harvesting.  https://english.news.cn/20230313/4c483d6898064787b27b535dcb236cdc/c.html