Background

May I remind you of the speed with which the US left Afghanistan? There were notices of withdrawal ongoing through a number of years and eventually they withdrew at a dizzying speed. In April 2021, Biden said the US would not begin withdrawing soldiers before 1 May 2021, but would complete the withdrawal by 11 September 2021. On 8 July, Biden specified a new completion date of 31 August 2021. NATO’s Resolute Support Mission concluded on 12 July 2021. And out they went with Afghanis hanging onto the wheels of planes and a final shootout and killing of a group of children.  The Taliban took Kabul in August, at a speed that astonished most onlookers.  We speculate of course that this withdrawal was in preparation for a NATO/EU/US war on Russia, through the proxy Ukraine. Speculation that the US and NATO realized that they were losing Afghanistan is also valid.

Now we are approaching the one-year mark since the Donbass Republics declared independence and Russia acknowledged that within days. It is also the one-year mark since Russia started their SMO in Ukraine. At time of writing, the Munich Security Conference is being held, shortly after a NATO conference and a Ukrainian Contact Group conference. The attendees of these conferences are mainly the same people, with Zelensky having pride of place begging for weapons and money. The Ukrainian weapons stocks are depleted, and the European stocks as well. Europe is now forced to deplete its live and current stock of war materiel, and not only its stockpiles and warehouses. Despite the passionate speeches that Russia will not win this war, it is clear to anyone serious that Russia is winning this war, has the final escalatory power, and can still take out Ukraine in a week or so. The advantage in most domains, even international support, lies with Russia. We’ve also seen that Russia was economically ready for the sanctions regime, and where they were not ready, they adjusted successfully.

But it is also clear that as far as Europe is concerned, the Empire has won.

The current state of Europe is a victory for the empire and they are carrying out the loot already in expanded business extracted from Germany for a start and in gas and hydrocarbon sales as well as weapons sales.   The empire achieved the desired goals: Ukraine has helped to disarm Europe and to make it dependent on the US.

However, is this the real war?

Or is the real war the one with China, which China certainly expects? There is no ambiguity in the fact that our current hegemonic force wants both of those, both Russia and China. And if they cannot have them as vassals, they want financial and economic control and the loot.  They will break up the countries, and create color revolutions for regime change.  This empire, once let in the door, never leaves.  There however is no ambiguity that with multi-polarity concepts growing, they cannot get what they want and their reputation in the real global community has dropped like a stone.  Nobody trusts them and everyone is trying to withdraw from the empire.

It is with this as background that we see this press: NATO eyes fighting two wars – Bloomberg

The current hegemon faces their inability to fight a kinetic war with a peer or near-peer adversary. There is also no ambiguity in that they do not fight themselves, but use proxies. I argue here that the proxies for a kinetic war against China and anyone that falls within Chinese influence have been chosen and the preparation process is active. I also argue that China poses a much greater economic threat, which is existential for China, than what Russia poses. This is not Taiwan. Taiwan is simply the named button, easy to remember, and easy to use. If China should want to war against Taiwan, it will walk in in the morning and by that afternoon the Taiwanese will already be lining up for new documentation. It is not an issue and China will continue with its slow integration. China has already won the kinetic war that certain Taiwanese influence is still trying to fight.  The only war domain in Taiwan, is an economic one and they are already being looted for their chip manufacturing facilities.

I argue that we may be on the brink of a quick and speedy withdrawal from the Ukrainian domain and a refocus on China in all war domains, as the major enemy. Public support for Ukraine is fading except among the real hard-headed and tone-deaf, and arms and money are not forthcoming in the quantities and amounts needed to win a war or to maintain a country. The end is near.

NATO is openly expressing its move to Asia. Global Times says: NATO holds its expansion to be a sacred right. It has spread across 14 countries of the former Eastern bloc to the borders of Russia. It has brought war to Europe by encircling a country that suffered about 27 million deaths the last time panzers rolled from the West.

It aims to repeat this performance in Asia, against China, with Japan volunteering to be Ukraine.  

Quite rightly the heading of the Global Times article is: Asia needs NATO like it needs a hole in the head. NATO claims to be a regional defensive alliance, but self-contradictorily seeks to breach its geographic confines and expand its agenda, stoke division, and tensions, create confrontations and strengthen military ties with Asia Pacific countries.

The US is moving all war domains to Asia

Although there is no clear demarcation between the US and NATO, the western press already trumpets its war move to the east.

As the war rages on in Ukraine, the United States is doing more than supporting an ally. It’s learning lessons — with an eye toward a possible future clash with China, – the Associated Press

US worried about China’s growing nuclear potential – WSJ:

NATO/US wants to move east, and for that, they need proxies and the process of creating those proxies is moving ahead in a well-oiled manner.

Chosen proxies and we look at Japan first.

Last week, the Sankei newspaper wrote that the United States offered Japan to deploy new missile weapons on the territory of the island state.

It refers to Tomahawk cruise missiles, as well as ground-based hypersonic medium-range ballistic missiles, which are not yet in service with the United States.

The deployment of missiles in Japan has not been officially announced, but according to media reports, such issues have been discussed on the sidelines in Washington for three or four years.

I remind you that Japan has 23 US military bases. Strong, well-established and they have time on their side. Some of these are tri-service or more bases, i.e., navy and airforce, integrated with Japanese air defense forces.  Japan has increased its manufacture of war materiel and there are estimates that current spending on this is now 3rd in the world.    The Qiao Collective states:

We’re witnessing a historic moment in the rehabilitation of Japanese militarism and the violation of Japan’s pacifist constitution.  But because this military buildup has China and the DPRK as its targets, it will be celebrated as a win for peace and democracy.

And now suddenly it is not only China.  Russia and Japan never actually signed a peace treaty after the 2nd world war and Russia immediately responded:

Russia is not neutral on Japan’s current military organizational development and will immediately retaliate in accordance with Russia’s Defence Doctrine, if any potential security threats to the regions of the Russian Far East emerge. Moscow will immediately respond to Japan in accordance with the defense doctrine if it deploys hypersonic missiles on the islands bordering Russia.  Andrei Rudenko, Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation.

Unlike Taiwan, Japan is not only a button that can be pressed like Taiwan.  US forces are well-inculcated similar to Germany.

Recent developments in the Philippines

A new agreement will allow the installation of four US military bases in the Philippines. After 30 years, the US will again have a major military presence in the Southeast Asian country.  Washington could deploy troops and military equipment just 800 km off the coast of Taiwan.

A Chinese spokesperson said the decision increases tension and endangers peace and stability in the region.

But take a look:  “If it can help protect our fishermen, our maritime territory, I don’t see why we can’t sign the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA),” President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said at the end of his first trip to Tokyo since taking office. The five-day visit to strengthen military ties with Japan comes as the latter kicks off its biggest military build-up since WW2 amidst competition in the South China Sea.

Manila has a Visiting Forces Agreement with the US, while Japan has Visiting Forces Agreements with Australia in the region and so the puzzle starts building itself.

Developments in Pakistan and this is exactly why Pakistani Prime Minister  Imran Khan was ousted by a lawfare coup

The second round of mid-level defense talks between the US and Pakistan took place in Washington as the countries’ delegations discuss regional and global security. The Pentagon said the four-day talks would also focus on bilateral defense, and could lead to higher-level discussions at a later stage. A month ago US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin discussed “areas of mutual interest” by phone with Islamabad’s Chief of Army Staff.

Do you begin to see the preparatory work to create new proxies in Japan, the Philippines, and Pakistan but more than that, we have cooperation intending to be a Military Pact between Pakistan and Japan.

As scary as this list is, it is not complete, there’s also a defense agreement with Papua New Guinea, all in the name of “stability in the Indo-Pacific”, which is peak gaslighting and again entrenching US military/economic dominance across Asia.

Few people know the size of empire. There is the whole Mariana Islands in the west Pacific which is empire commonwealth. Empire is well integrated into the region and without research, we don’t even know of these ‘commonwealths’.

This list will not be complete without mentioning continual low-level interference in Thailand.

The Solomon Islands were high on the list for new US encroachment but they acted by banning violent US-backed opposition groups and removed from power US-sponsored opposition leaders.  China assisted when the main island broke out in violent anti-Chinese riots, and China is their largest trade partner.  Australia wanted to help but their boat broke.  The US and the Western media are now accusing China of “encroaching” on the island nation and of the nation’s government of suppressing “democracy” and “human rights;”

This same pattern of US interference is exactly what precipitated the ongoing US proxy war with Russia in Ukraine;

The US Congress may have degenerated into a spectacle even greater than the old Roman Senate, but the empire is alive and well and doing its dark deeds.  A friend writes:  “The empire is huge, deep and  very global.  Just because the President is feeble and the government is corrupt and the dollar is being reduced in power and the military cannot win wars, does not mean the Empire has shrunk or lost its reach.  They control with a steel hand.  Look at the obedience to sanctions.  Look at the chaos they can cause in energy, food, supply chains, elections and media.  This is Empire and it is very strong.  The estimate is that it has lost only 10% of its complete hegemony and it will take 10-15 years to be cut to size so it fits a multi-polar arrangement.”

Our task is to financially and economically kneecap the empire, militarily make it so difficult that they don’t even try, and remove them from normal life.  We are in a race.  Denial of the economic war domain via a new economic order leads to war against kinetic war.  Once the hegemon loses economic power, it cannot have kinetic power.  So it is not how many wars, it is who wins the current economic war and its hybrid manifestations.